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Iran... what the ...

post #1 of 13
1/14/06 at 9:35pm
Thread Starter 
I've been thinking about this for a bit, and to me, its getting darn scary. I also read something else that was brought to my attention and wondered if it was true. Below is the paragraph from an editorial that made me shake my head:


More worrying for some is that Ahmadinejad is closely identified with the cult of the "hidden imam", the 12th and last of the line of imams revered by Shia Muslims. In a clear parallel with Jewish and Christian visions of Armageddon, Shias believe the imam zaman will return at a time of great turmoil to defeat the forces of evil; recently the president urged Iranians to work hard for this moment. As one commentator pointed out, this was like Tony Blair telling Britons to prepare for the Second Coming.

All I can say is... wow. One place that I read an opinion on it was "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be acting recklessly to start final apocalyptic battle, which would bring about return of 12th Imam." which is just the nutshell of what was said in the above. Then he also says this:

When an aircraft crashed in Teheran last month, killing 108 people, Mr Ahmadinejad promised an investigation. But he also thanked the dead, saying: "What is important is that they have shown the way to martyrdom which we must follow." Source

Wow... am I the only one getting nervous over this? How are you Europeans reacting to this? I'm hearing its really mixed...
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post #2 of 13
1/15/06 at 8:02am
Judging by the number of newspaper articles and editorials at the moment, I'd say that the Germans in particular, and Europeans in general, are very nervous about the entire situation, and have come to the conclusion that they can't settle anything by negotiating with Ahmadinejad, who is also being described as "apocalyptic" here. They've been running through the options: 1) accept Iran's nuclear ambitions (highly unlikely), 2) military intervention and occupation by a U.S.-led coalition (highly unlikely, as the U.S. is stretched too thin as it is), 3) isolation of Iran, with an oil boycott, freezing foreign accounts, restricting the country's representatives' travel (pretty unlikely because of the need for oil), 4) the EU continues to negotiate (pretty unlikely, simply because Ahmadinejad isn't a pragmatist, and there's a risk of losing face), 5) Iran agrees to have its uranium enriched by/in Russia (unlikely, as it has already rejected that idea), 6) precision air strikes by a U.S.-led coalition or Israel (unlikely, because of the political fallout in the entire region), and 6) the U.S. and EU call on the U.N. Security Council, which could resolve economic sanctions (likely, but will China and Russia go along? China gets 13% of its petroleum from Iran, and thus probably won't agree to an oil boycott).
Those options aren't good.
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post #3 of 13
1/15/06 at 9:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arg0
One place that I read an opinion on it was "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be acting recklessly to start final apocalyptic battle...
How ironic -- a lot of people think the right-wing Christians connected to the Republicans in the U.S. are attempting the same thing.

Is there an Iranian version of the "Left Behind" series?
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post #4 of 13
1/15/06 at 11:40am
I dont think Iran will last much longer in this regard. Most of the population are more pro-west, and if they see their maniac Pres leading to an apocolyptic confrontation with the West, he will be overthrown. Iran will not be allowed to develop nukes in any event, meaning Israel may do something militarily, with the US watching their back. Europe these days seems to rattle their sabers more than anything else, so I dont see help coming from Europe per se. Action by the NATO alliance may be in the future also. The biggest strategic problem is that Iran's nuke facilities are all over Iran and underground. So just bombing wont help destroy those facilities. However bombing may help an indigenous overthrow of the current Iranian government.
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post #5 of 13
1/15/06 at 12:36pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeAnderson
How ironic -- a lot of people think the right-wing Christians connected to the Republicans in the U.S. are attempting the same thing.
I don't think the right wing of the US Government nor does Bush want to create Jewish and Christian visions of Armageddon. The Iranian President, who belongs to a cult of the 12th Hidden Iman, does. In an article written by a britsh reporter who spent some time in Iran said that Ahmadinejad preached this in his speech when he was there:

"In the speech he had urged Iranians to work hard for the return of the imam zaman, who, according to Shia eschatology, will return at a time of great crisis, defeat the enemies of God and establish an era of universal justice."
source(Really good article. You see whats going on inside of Iran as we speak and the in fighting of whats going on there in Iran)

I'm reading on this more and more so I will post more interesting information if anyone wants it.
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post #6 of 13
1/15/06 at 1:12pm
That's an extremely informative article. The problem is, it opens as many questions as it answers. Is Iran heading for a civil war? If so, how are Arab countries going to react? What does it mean for Iraq, with its Shia majority?
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post #7 of 13
1/15/06 at 1:56pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcat
That's an extremely informative article. The problem is, it opens as many questions as it answers. Is Iran heading for a civil war? If so, how are Arab countries going to react? What does it mean for Iraq, with its Shia majority?
I would agree and I have been thinking about that too. The thing I am thinking about that should be considered along with the rest of the Arab nation is China and Russia? Both are staunch supporters, especially russia. If NATO reacts with military, how are these two going to react? The water starts to boil quietly...
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post #8 of 13
1/15/06 at 2:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arg0
I would agree and I have been thinking about that too. The thing I am thinking about that should be considered along with the rest of the Arab nation is China and Russia? Both are staunch supporters, especially Russia. If NATO reacts with military, how are these two going to react? The water starts to boil quietly...
Exactly. I may be wrong, but I really think that China is going to put trade relations before political ideology, but I'm not so sure about Putin, who rules Russia with an iron grip.
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post #9 of 13
1/15/06 at 8:15pm
Thread Starter 
More info on the US side... its interesting...

"The military option is the last option but cannot be taken off of the table."

And also said this:

"This is the most grave situation that we have faced since the end of the Cold War, absent the whole war on terror," Sen. John McCain told CBS' "Face the Nation."

"The Iranians showed their face when their president came to the U.N. and advocated the eradication of the state of Israel from the earth," said the Arizona Republican. "We must go to the U.N. now for sanctions."

And oh wow:

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a California Democrat, told the same program that she agrees with McCain's assessment of the extent of Iran's threat.

"Iran has much more opportunity to create devastation in the Middle East than Iraq at this time," she said. "I think it's a very serious threat."

"This new president of Iran is very difficult to predict. He clearly holds very radical and fanatic views with -- certainly with respect to Israel," she said. "I don't think it's a stretch to say that, if the Iranians had a nuclear missile, that this president might well use it against Israel."

She called the issue "the major test of the international community."
Source

The water still boils...
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post #10 of 13
1/16/06 at 11:35am
Thread Starter 
Just read that CNN has been banned from Iran (Source). This is the second network banned from Iran. Al-Jazeera has already been banned from Iran due to "inflaming violent protests".
And in other Iranian news:

Russia and China agreed with the United States and its European allies Monday that Iran must fully suspend its nuclear program, but the countries stopped short of demanding referral to the U.N. Security Council, Britain's Foreign Office said. Source
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post #11 of 13
1/16/06 at 12:30pm
There's an article in next week's TIME about how Iran is shutting down websites that disseminate critical news or news relevant to women, too. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...149388,00.html
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post #12 of 13
1/16/06 at 9:50pm
I personally don't have much input into this...however, I think things are getting VERY interesting. What I'm afraid of is that we will be pulling out our troops in Iraq only to head into Iran. *sigh*

I think we should keep our eye on Israel and who might attack them.
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post #13 of 13
1/17/06 at 9:05am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fluffysimba
I personally don't have much input into this...however, I think things are getting VERY interesting. What I'm afraid of is that we will be pulling out our troops in Iraq only to head into Iran. *sigh*

I think we should keep our eye on Israel and who might attack them.
In this situation, if the military key is used, The US will have much more help then what actions we took in Iraq. If cleared, I'm sure French, German and maybe even Russian troops would be used if all hell broke loose. Who knows, if it did, I'm sure Iraq would let us use their country as a launching pad if we had to use it for any military actions, if they haven't already for spying, etc.

As Israel, they are a pretty powerful little country with a strong intelligence organization, I'm sure they will be fine for the most part
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