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How worried are you about the economy ??

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Oil futures still over $100 a barrel. Dollar is still generally going down. It is the deficit. This economy is an economy running high on debt with little manufacturing (sustainable revenues), job growth is the slowest in six months....etc. It's a very messy recession/depression 'recovery'. So how pessimistic are you that as a country we are either stagnating, going backwards, or that what we are experiencing now is really a depression just well managed by Govt/Federal Reserve financial trickery ?

And then I was listening to Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, on CNBC today predict the US economy is on the verge of a "great, great recession." He talked in terms of an “almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money” over the direction of the market and the economy at large. For sure the "atypical" nature of the American economic situation from a long-term historical perspective makes a recovery particularly tenuous. I count myself VERY fortunate to still be gainfully employed (in a library no less ! ) with a stable personal financial outlook but the duration of mass unemployment is especially scary. And no one seems to be in control.

http://www.wtae.com/money/28092147/d...#ixzz1O2MRb8rJ
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43236764
post #2 of 16
I answered not too concerned as here where I am in Canada, it hasn't hit us too badly thankfully. When the crisis first started the company I work for put a hiring/wage freeze in place and cut back on a few minor benefits, but nothing that really affected us and everything has now been put back in place and we both got raises this year.
post #3 of 16
I'm somewhat concerned, but it's not because of the deficit. The fact that manufacturing is down is because there have been so many jobs shipped overseas. When you look at industries like the one I worked in for 30 years being primarily offshored these days, it contributes to the unemployment, or more relevant, UNDER employment.

The shift of money in this country has gone from middle income wage earners to the ultra rich and corporations (easy way to fix the deficit is stop providing welfare to these folks). The economy is going to continue to suffer as long as the majority of the people in this country don't have discretionary money to spend. If your income is so low that all you can buy is the essentials such as food and housing, then there is no longer a need to bring manufacturing back into this country because there won't be enough of a market to sell things.

I strongly feel that jobs are at the core of the problem right now. Corporations have cut back wages and the few jobs out there are fought over by a lot of people. The country just doesn't need jobs, it needs MEANINGFUL jobs.

My vet tech is extremely proud of the fact that her daughter finally found a job 1 year after graduation from college - as a cashier at a convenience store. I work with a large group of highly intelligent, college educated people making barely over minimum wage. Do you think any of these people are putting money into the economy? No way.
post #4 of 16
I think its a good thing. If you put a frog in water and turn the heat up slowly, you can boil it alive. People have noticed the water getting hotter and hotter, but its been gradual enough that they have tolerated it. This and the last administration have made enough of a mess of things for people to be fed up with the status quo. They have witnessed the rights eroding big government war mongering security state of the neo-cons and the big government tax and spend nanny state of the liberals, and I think are finally coming to the conclusion that the private sector simply can't support the costs of that much government no matter how it is wielded. I'm hopeful that this will be an opportunity to get someone like Ron Paul in office, and then we can turn things around and fix our fiscal and foreign policy for starters.
post #5 of 16
Canada's in rough shape and things are just starting to go sour, even though the (one) media here is still playing down the facts. 7 out of 10 Canadians own (or are buying) houses but 3 in 10 don't have enough to money to pay their bills every month. 4 in 10 have NO savings at all and 8 of every 10 people in Canada have no pensions. Canadian household debt is worse than in the U.S.; $1.50 is owed for every $1.00 earned.

Many homeowners have been using line of credit like ATM machines, getting 2nd or 3rd mortgages for vacations and flat screens - it's financial suicide especially when you think your house is worth more than anyone will actually pay you for it. And interest rates are at a historic low and can only go up. This will erase any equity for new buyers or those who bought 5/35 or 5/40. (Mortgages are renewed every 5 years here, so you can't lock in at a low rate longer than that.)

Vancouver (the gang capital of Canada) and Victoria's median house prices are about 10 times the median income. The U.S. housing crash happened at about 4.5 times the median income. Vancouver is more unaffordable than London U.K. or NYC.

Unemployment is the same as the U.S. Many people here looking for work, some for a year or more, including the Boomers who don't have enough money to retire on. And the massive number of Boomers are starting to put a strain on the health care system, and it's just the beginning.

Businesses are biting the dust here in Victoria, tourism is way down, I could list as least a dozen shops and restaurants that we used to frequent that have closed in the last year. Parking lots stand empty and everywhere you look there are businesses with papered windows and "for lease" signs. Canada has started the long slide, too bad nothing was learned from what happened to the U.S.

I'm concerned about the future when people get desperate here, crime will go up, more cuts to a health care system that is barely limping along, food costs have increased or you get less, and we've already had a huge increase in taxes on food and essential services (here in BC and in Ontario). These scary times are going to take a lot of people by surprise, it's going to be bad.
post #6 of 16
Japan suffered tremendous losses to their male population, entire manufacturing capability physically destroyed, had two atomic bombs dropped on their major cities and others firebombed into oblivion, and yet with next to no natural resources of their own other than the wealth of the seas and an ambitious and hardy people rebuilt their country to be arguably crowned king of Asia.

Anything that is broken can be rebuilt, it just sometimes takes close to total destruction of the old to bring about that positive change. Definitely difficult times ahead though, and it is wise to keep varied investments to hold out through the economic winter.
post #7 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducman69 View Post
...Definitely difficult times ahead though, and it is wise to keep varied investments to hold out through the economic winter.
And liquid, no debt.
post #8 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Momofmany View Post
I'm somewhat concerned, but it's not because of the deficit. The fact that manufacturing is down is because there have been so many jobs shipped overseas. When you look at industries like the one I worked in for 30 years being primarily offshored these days, it contributes to the unemployment, or more relevant, UNDER employment.
I totally agree. Americans have been brainwashed for a decade or more to believe that manufacturing and producing things is ‘blue collar,’ ‘old fashioned’ smokestack legacy industries that were in inevitable decline. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. It is not the “past” of our economy. It is actually the basis of everything an advanced economy needs to thrive. Losing our manufacturing means losing all the top skill level positions that co-locate with a plant : a lot of our future opportunities to innovate, management jobs, skills needed for design, training, maintenance of the product, other ancillary service industries, etc.

It isn't that I have taken such a hit being on the civil service scale, besides not getting pay raises this year and a possible salary cut. I do live in a city with an official unemployment rate of 15 percent, highest in the state, and it is scarcely mentioned now even in local media. Going from 18 to around 15 a year ago was such a huge psychological relief - slow but steady progress at a time when other areas still saw increases - the feeling of crisis completely dissipated (along with most food barrels, etc). But downplaying only makes the working poor more invisible. Being out of work is so common that it is widely seen as a long-term fact of life. What should be unacceptable has gained acceptance.

My only hope I guess is that changing financial conditions in the US and developing countries will offset some of the cost benefit associated with off-shoring. Corporations with a sophisticated knowledge of wage rates, business climates and labor supply can surely find a productive location in a smaller market within this country.

I only mentioned the deficit because governments are now saving by spending less and they lose as a weaker economy depresses tax receipts. Without the barrier of fiscal austerity there would be leeway to stimulate demand to encourage economic growth.

But there is also the more intractable "problem" of technological advances that enables us to produce more stuff with fewer and fewer people. And technology is getting better all the time. The result is that even without offshoring, the US can probably produce enough to survive without everyone taking part in the workforce. Corporate profits boom for the investor /speculator/big-business elites, but who is going to give everyone else money to buy the things being produced ? You end up with a very highly educated people who can’t find the work they feel qualified for (entitled to). That is a recipe for trouble and revolution like we're seeing in Greece and the Middle East.
post #9 of 16
Yes, I am worried. I think if an announcement was made that the US was going to drill its own oil, the prices would go down. That would be a major start in helping the economy.
post #10 of 16
Headlines from yesterday/today (my own words):

New unemployment gains: 425,000 Newly employed/jobs: 52,000

National Unemployment Rate goes up to 9.1% instead of down as analysts expected

Moody's Investment Agency threatens to lower US's AAA credit rating; following S&P's downgrade of US's credit outlook from positive to negative (In layman's terms - 1 credit agency already gives the US a bad credit score; another is threatening to.)

I heard a factoid last night that only 1 President in the current era has been re-elected when unemployment is higher than 6% (Reagan). Losers were in both parties.

Speaking of unemployment, some analysts still wonder if/when it will hit 11%.

So am I worried? Hell yeah I'm worried! Personally I think it's naive not to be worried.

I have a good job with a great company. A small business that has been around for 30+ years and they know how to weather recessions. Right now our business is on the upswing. We got raises for the first time in 3 years and healthy ones at that. Thank goodness. Prices kept going up even though income didn't and that has made it difficult at best.

On the flip side is my husband. He's been out of work for ~2 1/2 years now. He was in IT - and very good at it. After almost a year with nothing available for him, he decided to go to school in a completely different field (broadcasting, which he's actually been doing for years without a formal education). He graduated top in his class. The placement director told him that he has the perfect combination of skills to break in with his production experience + schooling + IT. That was close to 1 year ago. Nothing. There just aren't any jobs and the ones that are out there are being filled from the inside (i.e. an assistant being promoted).

If you have a job it's still kinda scary because the market for your company/position could flip at almost any time.

IMO for many industries this has been a big market correction. Like housing prices, for instance. HUGE market correction! It hurts for a lot of people who bought big or used re-financing as an ATM. It hurts for some people who did everything right and still got stuck.

The problem, though, is that the economy in general is so unstable that anything could sway it back from minor recovery to downturn in a heartbeat. Oil prices going up hurts. Bickering in Congress hurts because no one knows how it's going to affect them. Same with the whole Health Care deal - it's passed & will be implemented but no one know how it affects anything! It looks more & more like we will hit the double dip...we just don't know when or how hard.
post #11 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducman69 View Post
I'm hopeful that this will be an opportunity to get someone like Ron Paul in office, and then we can turn things around and fix our fiscal and foreign policy for starters.
Neither party and most politicians don't pay much attention to the issue of private sector American jobs because they rarely associate with people who are affected by it. In fact they are getting donations from people who benefit from the trend.

The American standard of living is in the process of racing down to the level of that of developing nations, and the American economy is taking on the profile of a third world commodity supplier. Instead of shipping manufactured goods to the rest of the world as we did in the past, our main exports are now raw materials.

What is Ron Paul's solution ? To let the market sort it out ? Who are his contributors ?
post #12 of 16
Try living in the UK!, i lost my home had to move back into parents leave my cats with FH, be in thousands of pounds worth of debt and no sight to see out of it at times, can only find a part time job, had to sell my car because fuel went way up as did insurance and tax

we have a government that is cutting funds to everything it possibly can including our soldiers, local councils, and wont help the people most in need
post #13 of 16
I voted "Somewhat concerned" but quite possibly I meant "very". "Concerned" would be my answer.
post #14 of 16
Thread Starter 
This statement is alarming in that we are having a freaking economic nightmare in the nation and this administration doesn't appear to be even attempting to grasp the impact.

NO MORE DAILY ECONOMIC BRIEFINGS: The White House admitted yesterday that the president no longer holds daily economic briefings. The meetings, which were announced with fanfare at the first press briefing of the Obama administration, have disappeared from his schedule altogether, according to The Hill. The sessions just “petered out,†the White House told the paper.


I'm still amazed by how many people appear shocked by the pickle we're now in and seem more interested in jokes about Paul Revere than holding the president to the fire.
post #15 of 16
I'm not really that concerned right now. I've seen my job do lay offs and put on a hiring freeze a few times in the last few years. But there are plenty of companies popping up in the area that are hiring as well, at very good salaries. I have a good job with a company that's been around for 30 years, with no worries (have discussed it with my team leader - by the time I'd be laid off, would be the time the company went under completely).

I can afford gas, even if I wish it were cheaper, for all of my vehicles including my diesel dually truck. My husband's business is doing amazing considering the economy for many people. I still can pay extra on my mortgage every month and afford all of my bills comfortably, while still enjoying going out to eat 1-2x a week (and still have a 15-40min wait and trouble finding parking!). When that changes, I may begin to get concerned.

That being said, I DO feel for those who are affected negatively by the economy and wish things were better for them. I consider myself lucky to be in the position I'm in, and am very grateful. It IS scary to see what is happening in some areas, but at the same time I feel secure in my situation (even if it may be naive of me).
post #16 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by elayman View Post
This statement is alarming in that we are having a freaking economic nightmare in the nation and this administration doesn't appear to be even attempting to grasp the impact.

NO MORE DAILY ECONOMIC BRIEFINGS: The White House admitted yesterday that the president no longer holds daily economic briefings. The meetings, which were announced with fanfare at the first press briefing of the Obama administration, have disappeared from his schedule altogether, according to The Hill. The sessions just “petered out,†the White House told the paper.


I'm still amazed by how many people appear shocked by the pickle we're now in and seem more interested in jokes about Paul Revere than holding the president to the fire.
It's not all that alarming... (and this is from Fox)

Quote:
"The president requests regular meetings several times a week and daily updates from his economic policy team, just as he does with his national security team and other senior advisers in the White House," said White House Spokeswoman Amy Brundage.

And she adds, they come in a variety of ways, "For example, the President routinely meets with members of his economic team, both on an individual basis and in groups, and receives updates from his economic staff from their daily staff meeting."

He also gets regular updates on paper, getting daily briefing documents from the National Economic Council Brundage says.

She says the president asks to meet with outside economists and experts and receives several updates from Vice President Biden.


Read more: http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/20...#ixzz1OkeZblCv
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