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U.S.’s $13 Trillion Debt Poised to Overtake GDP

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...64Gx.4E&pos=15

Quote:
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is poised to increase the U.S. debt to a level that exceeds the value of the nation’s annual economic output, a step toward what Bill Gross called a “debt super cycle.â€

The CHART OF THE DAY tracks U.S. gross domestic product and the government’s total debt, which rose past $13 trillion for the first time this month. The amount owed will surpass GDP in 2012, based on forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The lower panel shows U.S. annual GDP growth as tracked by the IMF, which projects the world’s largest economy to expand at a slower pace than the 3.2 percent average during the past five decades.
In case anyone cares.
post #2 of 20
I sure as heck do care!!

The worst thing is that I can't blame one party for this, either Democrats or Republicans. I can't blame Obama for this, though he is adding more in one year than any other President in history... But Bush had added more than any other, etc. etc. I can't blame Bush either. Neither will I stand by and let anyone else push the blame on either party or any particular President.

Both parties are to blame, and have been for years. Pork isn't a new problem, it's been going on for years and apparently no one really cared as long as they got a hefty serving themselves. Both parties have been at fault for that one - and both party's Presidents have signed those budgets with way too much pork in them without batting an eye. Both parties have also used Pork as a talking point during elections and then gone back to business as usual when they got back to Washington. Both parties have been spending above the country's income for decades. Guess none of them had to balance their own personal budgets.

And then people wonder why the Tea Party has really come to the fore recently. It isn't just a backlash to Obama, though that may be a big reason for some people. It's a backlash to all of them, both parties, who have made it OK to break their promises as soon as they get elected, and who make Americans distrust government overall.
post #3 of 20
Thread Starter 
That is what people just don't get. The Tea Party is taking down incumbent Republicans also, prime example, Utah.

Politicians of both parties have sold this country down the river. And with us goes Europe.
post #4 of 20
Uck...I'm going to need to get a spare backside to sit on, because the way we're going, China's going to own that too...
post #5 of 20
If my 11-year-old nephew asks me, "So, who do we owe so much money to?" How should I answer?

Should I say "We owe a lot of money to China, sweety."
post #6 of 20
We owe a lot of money to China but also to Japan.
http://www.davemanuel.com/2009/09/18...on-dollars-to/

I cannot understand this, because Japan has a national debt that is 192 % of its own GDP. How can the US owe that much to Japan when Japan itself has a worse debt problem than the US?
post #7 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2dogmom View Post
We owe a lot of money to China but also to Japan.
http://www.davemanuel.com/2009/09/18...on-dollars-to/

I cannot understand this, because Japan has a national debt that is 192 % of its own GDP. How can the US owe that much to Japan when Japan itself has a worse debt problem than the US?
If we paid them what we owe them, maybe they wouldn't have that problem. IOU's only get you so far.
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skippymjp View Post
If we paid them what we owe them, maybe they wouldn't have that problem.
boom tish

Thanks for the link 2dogmom
post #9 of 20
Would be nice if EVERY country paid what they owe to other countries. I get the feeling that just about every country (in truth) is bankrupt.
post #10 of 20
This is bugging me so I looked around.
About 18 years ago, the US was owed $56 billion by other countries.
http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAA486.pdf

I can't find anything more recent.

As best I can tell the national debt in 1990 was about 4 trillion, so even if everyone paid off their IUO to use we would still owe money.
post #11 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by valanhb View Post
I sure as heck do care!!

The worst thing is that I can't blame one party for this, either Democrats or Republicans. I can't blame Obama for this, though he is adding more in one year than any other President in history... But Bush had added more than any other, etc. etc. I can't blame Bush either. Neither will I stand by and let anyone else push the blame on either party or any particular President.

Both parties are to blame, and have been for years. Pork isn't a new problem, it's been going on for years and apparently no one really cared as long as they got a hefty serving themselves. Both parties have been at fault for that one - and both party's Presidents have signed those budgets with way too much pork in them without batting an eye. Both parties have also used Pork as a talking point during elections and then gone back to business as usual when they got back to Washington. Both parties have been spending above the country's income for decades. Guess none of them had to balance their own personal budgets.

And then people wonder why the Tea Party has really come to the fore recently. It isn't just a backlash to Obama, though that may be a big reason for some people. It's a backlash to all of them, both parties, who have made it OK to break their promises as soon as they get elected, and who make Americans distrust government overall.
If Congress would just give what most Presidents have been requesting for decades - THE LINE ITEM VETO - then they would have no excuse for having to include pork in appropriations bills. They could line out the pork. Then we could judge them on the appropriations they allowed to pass, without the cop out that they had to allow the bad in order to pass the good.
post #12 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dusty's Mom View Post
If Congress would just give what most Presidents have been requesting for decades - THE LINE ITEM VETO - then they would have no excuse for having to include pork in appropriations bills. They could line out the pork. Then we could judge them on the appropriations they allowed to pass, without the cop out that they had to allow the bad in order to pass the good.
I TOTALLY agree. But to be honest, I don't think there is any chance at all that we'll ever see it. Every Congressman knows that when "the other guys" win the Presidency, having a line-item veto would keep them from getting any of their own goodies.
post #13 of 20
You're probably right Mike, but perhaps the Tea Party can make that a plank in their platform, and when it comes up for vote, make public the names of everyone that voted against it, so we can vote them out. Don't care what party they belong to, can 'em.
post #14 of 20
Well, I'm digging up and old thread and chiming in because this is something about which I know a little.

The absolute level of debt isn't meaningful - as bloomberg points out, debt in relation to GDP is what matters. Our country has grown its GDP for the last 3 decades on debt. This administration has grown debt as any government would to stem the worst of a terrible economic situation. The trend of our growth in GDP via debt began with the fall of the $ under Reagan. We began exporting our jobs overseas, and how our economy is 70% based on consumer spending. The problem (IMO) in our debt situation is not the line item veto. That's pennies compared to the problem of trillions.

First chart for you:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...ypresident.jpg

Republicans are in red, Dems in blue. Shows start GDP/Debt at the beginning of the term, and GDP/Debt at the ending of the term, the increase in debt, and the increase in debt/GDP. Note how things change with Reagan in office.

FAR scarier is the TOTAL credit/GDP (not just government debt). Since the 1800s to the early 1980, this number average no more than 200% (other than during the great depresssion, and thre the problem was not so much an increase in debt, it was massively falling GDP):



Bottom-line: the developed world has doubled its debt load over the past 10 years (from $25 trillion to $56 trillion); our debt doubled in the 90s as it did in the 80s. To continue this trend, debt would need to increase to $104 trillion over the next decade, adding - you ready? $5 trillion a year.

Debt began to rise exponentially during the Reagan administration - coinciding with an era of deregulation of the banking sector. Yes, our GDP has been rising steadily (for the most part) - but our debt has been rising six times faster (our debt as a nation, not just the government).

Here's where things get sticky - the decline in the savings rate also began to fall off a cliff in the early 1980s. I am NOT stating causation, merely correlation. But this does coincide with the falling doller (in real terms), and the falling long term interest rate. This is when the baby boomers started moving into homes - and considered those homes part of their savings. This is called the "wealth effect" in macro economic theory. The idea is that an increase in consumer spending results from a perceived wealth created by the escalating value of assets - like homes and the stock market.

Anyway, here's that chart:



I've got more charts there if anyone wants them.

As a country, not only have we been failing to save - the flip side to that coin is that we have been consuming more than we produce. This can CLEARLY be demonstrated by our trade deficit.



Again - note how it takes off in the early 80s. It does fall back there for a while in the 90s, but starts to really take off when U.S. corporations really started moving outsourcing to The People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia & etc. To fund U.S. consumer consumptoin, we have been borrowing the difference from foreigners. The PRC (PLEASE people, STOP calling it "China." It is a communist country and let's not let propoganda make us for get that!!!!) is the largest owner of our debt (weighing in with 22% of all foreign purchases of U.S.) because they CHOSE to basically subsidize our consumption. Our loss is their growth. Gary and I have warned repeatedly (you'll find discussion of it in these forums) that allowing the PRC to subsidize our consumption would result long term in either the destruction of the dollar or their ability to put us in an economic stranglehold, and potentially both.

Clinton paved the way, encouraging "China's" entry into the World Trade Organization, and Bush signed the bill. I mean - "China" is an "emerging economic power" (about to become the second largest economy in the world if it isn't already), an engine of world economic growth, bursting with new consumers. "The People's Republic of China" is a communist country that works on five- year plans, reports convenient not real numbers, controls its currency with a tight fist, is facing labor unrest on a scale unheard of in the West, and kills 1000s of individuals a year with hardly any safety regulations in place (not to mention what they're doing to their environment. 24% of LA's smog on any given day is FROM THE PRC!!!).

Sorry, I digress.

The point is that with our foreign borrowing came the export of our jobs. It could not happen any other way if we weren't saving enough to fund required investments, period. But we didn't just move our jobs overseas - we moved entire factoris. We disassemblied our mills, put them on ships, and literally shipped them to other countries., Our actual sources of wealth generation - our sources of production - were moved offshore

So what does this mean? Debt is a claim on the future. Yet future cash flows cannot be continuously borrowed. There are three options:

1) Cash flows must relfect actual production, and at some oint, the cash flows must suppport future debt servicing costs (we pay down the debt);
2) Default on the debt;
3) Inflate the currency.

I'll scare you with the rest of the thinking in some other post if it is ever appropriate in IMO, but the least painful way for the U.S. consumer to "beat" this economy is to inflate - and that means that we will likely exceed 100% of debt/GDP.
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dusty's Mom View Post
If Congress would just give what most Presidents have been requesting for decades - THE LINE ITEM VETO - then they would have no excuse for having to include pork in appropriations bills. They could line out the pork. Then we could judge them on the appropriations they allowed to pass, without the cop out that they had to allow the bad in order to pass the good.
Congress DID give the line item veto to Bill Clinton. When he used it, Congress appealed, and the Supreme Court overthrew the legislation.

As I quoted earlier, the problem with democracy is that the citizens learn they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.

Or, as P.J. O'Rourke wrote, we are a "Parliament of Whores." At first glance, many think he is talking about Congress or the government, but as you read the book, you find he is saying that almost universally, each and every one of us is willing to take money from the government, preferably money that is paid in by someone else.

But we probably want to be accurate here. This is from an article written in September of 2009.

At that time, the total debt was about $12,000,000,000,000. That's twelve trillion dollars, or almost $40,000 for every U.S. citizen.

Of that, the US government had $7.52 trillion dollars in public debt, and an additional $4.3 trillion dollars in intragovernmental holdings. The introgovernmental holding is money the government owes itself, mostly non-salable government bonds representing money taken out of Social Security revenue. So that is money we owe ourselves.

Of the public debt, most of it is owned by mutual funds, pension funds, individual investors, etc. Some of it is owned by foreign investors and foreign governements.

China and Japan each own about $750,000,000,000 dollars of U.S. debt.

But the single largest holder of our debt is, essentially, ourselves.
post #16 of 20
Soon, less tha 20 years, China will rule the US. It'll be their debt then.

I'm learning Chinese.
post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_PH View Post
Soon, less tha 20 years, China will rule the US. It'll be their debt then.

I'm learning Chinese.
I do hope you are wrong about that. The United States has pulled out of bad stuff before now and we will again.
post #18 of 20
I was advised to learn Chinese back in college, 40 years ago.

And I always told my World History students that they descendants would have brown skin, epicanthic folds, speak a combination of English, Spanish, and Chinese, and brag on both their slave and slave-owning ancestors.

"All That Rises Must Converge"
post #19 of 20
http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/...China-Flag.jpg

OK, so that may be overstating the problem (for now).

BUT, Mike I have to disagree with your statement that "Of the public debt, most of it is owned by mutual funds, pension funds, individual investors, etc. Some of it is owned by foreign investors and foreign governements."

Current figures, (well, as of July 28, 2010) are:

Total US Debt outstanding is $13.3 trillion (approx 93% of annual GDP).

That is comprised of:
Public debt of $8.6 trillion and
Intergovernmental debt of $4.7 trillion

So...

Public debt is 65% of total U.S. debt
Intergovernmental debt is 35% of total U.S. debt

According to the Treasury Dept., foreign ownership of US Debt is $3.7 trillion.

This is 43% of the total public debt, a number I consider to be more than just "some" of our total public debt.

The PRC ($890 billion US debt) plus Hong Kong ($147 billion) owns $1,036 billion (over $1 trillion) of US public debt.

That means the PRC (and HK) owns 12% of our public debt and 8% of our total debt. It also means that the PRC (and HK) represent 28% of our debt held by foreigners. That too, is a lot more than just "some" (I know you didn't address that part of it Mike).

While U.S. Treasury yields have been bid down to the point there's a lot of talk about the new "bond bubble,"

sidebar: for those who don't know what that means, it means that there is a lot of people out there buying U.S. Treasuries. These are perceived as less risky than most other investments, so when Central Banks, Money Managers, and Individuals are scared, they flee to "safe havens," traditionally investments like U.S. Treasuries or gold.

the fact of the matter is that foreigners have become a larger portion of the people buying them. Here's a chart depicting the change in ownership of our debt over time (2000 - 2009). This chart is provided by Veronique de Ruby, of the Mercatus Center. Here is a link to the article and it has her bio. http://mercatus.org/publication/fore...continues-grow

http://mercatus.org/sites/default/fi...n%20Debt_0.jpg

Eswar Prasad, a Sr. Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell and a Sr. Fellow & New Century Chair in International Economics at Brookings, gave testimony to Congress on Feb 25 (this year) on the U.S.-China economic relationship, particularly as it relates to the rising "Chinese" ownership of U.S. debt. http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2...bt_prasad.aspx

He points out that while over the past year the U.S. has become less dependent upon China's financing of our deficits (as consumers attempt to mend their balance sheets, so U.S. savings rate is back on the rise) - but that "given the sheer scale of the U.S. deficit financing requirement - a budget deficit of about $1.6 trillion in 2010 and prospects of nearly $9 trillion of deficits over the next decade... a precipitous action by China to shift aggressively out of U.S. dollar-denominated instruments, or even an announcment of such an intention, could act as a trigger that nervous market sentiments coaslesce around, leading to a sharp fall in bond prices and the value of the U.S. dollar."

He goes on to point out many reasons it may not happen. And even we (Gary and I - Gary is a Chief Market Strategest and I'm an equity analyst for those who don't know) don't see something like this happening any time soon.

That said... let's not forget the UK's experience with the U.S. in 1956 after Britain joined France and Israel in seizing the Suez Canal after Nassar nationalized it. President Eisenhower basically told the UK that the U.S. would ruin the pound if the U.K. didn't withdraw.

The PRC is certainly in a position to do this. It's not like the PRC hasn't borne great suffering in the past for its independence.
post #20 of 20
Ni Haoi,

Its' inevitable. Population and perspective.

1.4 Billion vs 308 Million.

They're growing and gaining influence while US economic power and influence is waning.

China has a directed economy and Asian Cultures have a long history and a long perspective. They aren't a fledgling culture like the US.

The US has given power to the Benedict Arnold, now international Corporations, that work on a short term view and have no loyalty to the US.
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