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Remember when gas was $4/gal plus?

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 
Obama's aides say one of the first thing's he's going to do is to re-restrict drilling for oil. I guess we have plenty now, huh? This is a real disappointment, although right now he's only talking about drilling in "sensitive areas."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=6215451
post #2 of 26
Personally, I think we've always had enough gas. The Gas Companies were just strong arming us to pay more, MORE, MORE!

I'm sure they will go up again, now that the election is over, and it will probably get worse than what it was. They have no need to regulate the gas prices now. Gas will skyrocket into the strasophere, and it won't have anything to do with any restrictions Obama puts on drilling. It will be because they lost the election.
post #3 of 26
We filled up the car yesterday and it only cost a little over $20! We have a spreadsheet with petrol prices, and back in July, we paid $46 for about the same amount of petrol.

I think we have plenty of petrol - those prices in the middle of the year were artificially inflated.
post #4 of 26
With technology and existing pipeline infrastructure today, it wasn't necessary for Bush to lift the ban on drilling the outer continental shelf. This was just done in July of this year - though the article to which you provided a link doesn't say, I assume this is what it is referring to. $4 gas had nothing to do with lack of supply from the U.S. We don't have the refining capacity to deal with it anyway. The last refinery built in the U.S. was in 1976. Even if domestic production wanted to displace foreign production, it would take a decade for new areas to have any impact. Makes more sense to invest in ALTERNATIVES to oil.

Remember this thread? Bush to lift executive ban on offshore drilling

Laurie
post #5 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by LDG View Post
The last refinery built in the U.S. was in 1976.
Are you sure? And certain that there's not being anymore built or added on/updated to open anytime soon?

Those who go to answer that question, look at my location...
post #6 of 26
Why, are you aware of one that is?

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn12966.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6019739/

And from CNN in 2008: Farmers fight plans for new oil refinery ...and that's in South Dakota.

If you're aware of a new one that went up or is going up, I'd love to know about it.

Laurie
post #7 of 26
With my safeway club discount, I only paid 1.10 per gallon today! I was super stoked!
post #8 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by strange_wings View Post
Are you sure? And certain that there's not being anymore built or added on/updated to open anytime soon?

Those who go to answer that question, look at my location...
However, capacity additions and increased utilization definitely happen:

PDF by FTC: White Paper on Refining Capacity

Refining capacity increases in U.S.: 1.7 million barrels a day since 1985 to 2008 Capacity has increased

However, bear in mind that we use around 21 million barrels a day in the U.S.

Laurie
post #9 of 26
I think it was no coincidence that price of a barrel of oil immediately dropped when Bush lifting the ban. None at all.
When the price starts skyrocketing again because of what Barack does and people can't afford to heat their homes, don't anyone blame Bush.


If I remember correctly many people slammed Bush to the floor for using to much executive power. Now Barack is going to do it on his first day in office.
post #10 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckblv View Post
I think it was no coincidence that price of a barrel of oil immediately dropped when Bush lifting the ban. None at all.
When the price starts skyrocketing again because of what Barack does and people can't afford to heat their homes, don't anyone blame Bush.


If I remember correctly many people slammed Bush to the floor for using to much executive power. Now Barack is going to do it on his first day in office.
Actually, I do think it is a coincidence. All commodities started falling mid-July because the dollar started rising. Gold didn't start falling because he lifted the ban, did it? Sunday, July 12 is when Paulson said they were going to lend money to Fannie and Freddie....mark the beginning of the financial crisis. The public may not have seen it coming yet, but the markets did.

Laurie
post #11 of 26
I don't believe in those kinds of coincidences.
post #12 of 26
Of course that's your perogative.

...But the facts indicate otherwise. After hitting an all-time low (since being measured beginning 1973) on March 16, 2008, the dollar started rising July 11 (from 71.46 to 85.32), gold started falling July 16 (from $977.31 to $737.01), aluminum started its fall July 14 (from $1.54 to $0.91), copper pre-dated the rest and it started cratering July 3 (it has fallen from $4.03 to $1.83) how would you then explain the correlation of the rise of the dollar, and the fall of these other commodities?

Just for anyone interested, there was a Fed report to Congress that day. Here's the Monetary Policy Report submitted to Congress on July 15, 2008 by The Federal Reserve Board: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd...8mpr_part4.htm

It sucked.

Laurie
post #13 of 26
Thread Starter 
Having worked in the oil industry, I can tell you we have three problems that caused gas to rise. The first is unregulated speculation, which I suspect the new administration will take much needed steps to re-regulate. The second is insufficient refining capacity. It's almost impossible to get a new refinery permitted, so many refineries have essentially been rebuilt in recent years in an effort to increase capacity. The third problem is, in fact, insufficient supply. Petroleum usage in the U.S. has fallen significantly in the last 6 months, and financial problems in the U.S. have caused a decrease in the growth of consumption in China and Asia.

Just the chance that drilling would increase had a major effect on the speculators. If Obama actually decreases that likelihood, I can guarantee the speculators will move back into the market, figuring it's only a matter of time before we have problems again.

And have you noticed the price of diesel? Our economy runs on the stuff, but we're competing heavily with the rest of the world for it, and it remains almost 50% more expensive than gasoline. That cost works its way throughout the economy, due to increased transportation costs. It also causes hardships for the northeast, which depends on heating oil, which is essentially diesel. You don't want to know what it's going to cost to heat houses this winter.
post #14 of 26
I am just glad it is cheaper. It was getting ridiculous. Though I think the good that came out of it was that we are more aware that we need alternative energy sources. We can create new jobs while trying to wean ourselves off of foreign oil.
post #15 of 26
The U.S. has 4% of the reserves and consumes 25% of the world's gas. Opening up drilling, along with extending the infrastructure to manage it, is only putting a bandaid on an already dire situation. And drilling in environmentally sensitive areas isn't going to solve the problem, and will only make things worse in the long run. Investments are better spent on alternative fuel sources.
post #16 of 26
Thread Starter 
Actually, the U.S. has only 4% of the PROVEN reserves. You know how you prove reserves? By drilling.

Conservation is a great concept, and something we should all be practicing. But we can not (and let me emphasize that as much as possible) conserve our way out of our energy problems, any more than we can drill our way out of them. We need both, or we are going to have an economic crash that will make this one look tame.

In fact, the recession of 1974, the worst since WWII, was caused by exactly that problem. We are nowhwere near that yet, but a few wrong moves could put us there in a hurry.
post #17 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche View Post
Actually, the U.S. has only 4% of the PROVEN reserves. You know how you prove reserves? By drilling.

Conservation is a great concept, and something we should all be practicing. But we can not (and let me emphasize that as much as possible) conserve our way out of our energy problems, any more than we can drill our way out of them. We need both, or we are going to have an economic crash that will make this one look tame.

In fact, the recession of 1974, the worst since WWII, was caused by exactly that problem. We are nowhwere near that yet, but a few wrong moves could put us there in a hurry.
I'm all for the CNG solution as being a huge part of solving the problem. Already proven to work in fleet vehicles, and there are conversion kits for standard autos already.
post #18 of 26
Thread Starter 
But CNG doesn't work for long-distance truck work. Local work is OK, but CNG has major problems.

It takes about 10 years to turn over 50% of the American fleet of vehicles, so even if every vehicle produced was using some alternate fuel, it would take 20 years to get down to the point where almost all vehicles were alternately powered. That's without causing a major economic hit, such as buying all the cars in the country and crushing them.

Did you see the article on a fungus making diesel?

Fungus Diesel
post #19 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche View Post
But CNG doesn't work for long-distance truck work. Local work is OK, but CNG has major problems.
Did you see the article on a fungus making diesel?

Fungus Diesel
True.

And Yes, fungus is our friend. They're also using algae to mak Jet-A for aviation, and that's moving along wonderfully. That would free up loads of kerosene, which could then be used for heating oil.
post #20 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche View Post
Actually, the U.S. has only 4% of the PROVEN reserves. You know how you prove reserves? By drilling.
Small technicality, but that is 4% of proven AND probable. We have 2.5% of proven reserves.

Laurie
post #21 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche View Post
But CNG doesn't work for long-distance truck work. Local work is OK, but CNG has major problems.

It takes about 10 years to turn over 50% of the American fleet of vehicles, so even if every vehicle produced was using some alternate fuel, it would take 20 years to get down to the point where almost all vehicles were alternately powered. That's without causing a major economic hit, such as buying all the cars in the country and crushing them.

Did you see the article on a fungus making diesel?

Fungus Diesel
Ok, this may be completely wrong, but I think I remember diesel engines can go on used cooking oil (from as from McDonalds, Burger King, etc). Shouldn't that be were the first "change" in fuel for diesel vechicles be? I was friends with a professor in Guam that actually got the public works dept to use cooking oil in the trucks, and it saved a lot of money, so it does work. And from what I understand diesel engines will take that without damage. And, lord knows we have enough fast food restaurants in the country to keep them in business!
post #22 of 26
Thread Starter 
Dr. Diesel designed his first engine to run on cooking oil. The problem is that cooking oil, especially used, has real problems with cold temperatures, lubricity (the fuel has to lubricate the parts of the fuel system and the upper cylinder), and, to be just blunt about it, there isn't enough of it. I used to burn nearly 200 gallons per day of diesel in just my one truck; a McDonald's doesn't create 200 gallons in a month.

But there are moves to use "biodiesel" and other sources of fuel. Some states (Minnesota, for one) require a certain percentage of biodiesel in all diesel fuel. Or, at least they did, until they had such a problem with a supplier a few years ago that they ended up having to compensate thousands of truck owners for downtime, engine damage, etc.
post #23 of 26
gas hit 1.99 a gallon in utah today. WOO HOO Im so excited to go fill up my car. I don't htink I have been this excited about filling my gas tank up since it hit .99 cents a gallon a few back in 2002 or so
post #24 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckblv View Post
When the price starts skyrocketing again because of what Barack does and people can't afford to heat their homes, don't anyone blame Bush.
You know they will. They have to blame someone else when they fail However, the fact that the price of gas/oil has fallen, has nothing to do with Bush or BHO. It has everything to do with the stock market falling. With the market falling, people are selling off their oil stock, the reason the price was high to begin with. With so may people buying up oil futures, it was creating a shortage of oil, even though there really wasn't a "real" shortage. Now that everyone is selling, it has created an oil excess and the price has fallen since there is now more supply than demand. Just like with anything else, when the supply exceeds the demand, prices fall. But somehow, when the price starts to climb again, the dems will blame Bush for this
post #25 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by AmberThe Bobcat View Post
You know they will. They have to blame someone else when they fail However, the fact that the price of gas/oil has fallen, has nothing to do with Bush or BHO. It has everything to do with the stock market falling. With the market falling, people are selling off their oil stock, the reason the price was high to begin with. With so may people buying up oil futures, it was creating a shortage of oil, even though there really wasn't a "real" shortage. Now that everyone is selling, it has created an oil excess and the price has fallen since there is now more supply than demand. Just like with anything else, when the supply exceeds the demand, prices fall. But somehow, when the price starts to climb again, the dems will blame Bush for this
To a certain extent, I agree about the effect of speculation on the price of crude oil and related energy futures. It will likely turn out that a few people get fined or censured for manipulation as well. IMO, crude does not fall because the stock market falls; they're both falling because of very weak global economic outlook. However, I still stand by my thesis that oil was just one of the commodities that rose in U.S. $ terms because of the fall of the dollar. Crude is now falling due both to the outlook for weak demand AND the rise of the dollar. The correlation without overlay is quite obvious.

For those to whom charts are not gibberisih

The U.S. Dollar index (10 year chart)



Crude Oil (10 year chart)



Gold (10 year chart)



As you can see, gold and oil look VERY similar, and basically are inverse to the dollar index.

Laurie
post #26 of 26
I didn't know there was a rise of the dollar. That's pretty interesting seeing how everything else has been going. I did forget to mention about the lower demand for crude too. With gas prices so high, people were driving a lot less. It would be nice to see the prices stay this way, but I doubt they will.
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