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Noticed something on the news....

post #1 of 17
Thread Starter 
There has long been a study of statistical probability on Presidential elections. That is, when you compare two people, the one who has -------- or is ------- wins. Some of them are pretty uncanny. And, of course, since there haven't been all that many Presidential elections, there are probably no statistical significance in any of it.

For example, if both men are military veterans, the one who was in the Navy usually wins.

Almost always, the taller man wins.

And oddly enough, if only one is left-handed, he will likely be the winner.

Going by all this, I would bet on Obama, because, yes, you guessed it, like Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Harry Truman, Herbert Hoover, and James A. Garfield, Obama is left-handed.
post #2 of 17
Obama may be left handed but McCain was in the Navy. How would that shake (no pun intended) out?
post #3 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essayons89 View Post
Obama may be left handed but McCain was in the Navy. How would that shake (no pun intended) out?
Obama is taller, so I suppose he'd still be elected.
post #4 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcat View Post
Obama is taller, so I suppose he'd still be elected.
Suppose John Wayne, Clint Eastwood and Charles Bronson were running. Would "The Duke" win because he's taller than them?

This reminds me of people who root for a team because they like the uniform colors.
post #5 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essayons89 View Post
Suppose John Wayne, Clint Eastwood and Charles Bronson were running. Would "The Duke" win because he's taller than them?

This reminds me of people who root for a team because they like the uniform colors.
I bet on horses because of the colour the jockey wears. Is that so different?
post #6 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essayons89 View Post
Suppose John Wayne, Clint Eastwood and Charles Bronson were running. Would "The Duke" win because he's taller than them?

This reminds me of people who root for a team because they like the uniform colors.
I remember women of a certain age saying they were going to vote for Ronald Reagan, because he was one of their favorite actors, and so handsome.

I wonder if height only helps in the U.S.? Berlusconi and Sarkozy are very short, and it didn't hurt them. And the former doesn't even have "good hair".
post #7 of 17
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Essayons89 View Post
Obama may be left handed but McCain was in the Navy. How would that shake (no pun intended) out?

Uh...close?

The only time the Navy thing didn't work was when Bush beat Kerry, I think. AF versus Navy.

But McCain is built like a fighter pilot...fairly short.

Of course, all these things only work until they quit working.
post #8 of 17
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcat View Post
I remember women of a certain age saying they were going to vote for Ronald Reagan, because he was one of their favorite actors, and so handsome.

I wonder if height only helps in the U.S.? Berlusconi and Sarkozy are very short, and it didn't hurt them. And the former doesn't even have "good hair".
Putin is short, too.
post #9 of 17
I read that in a book recently, called Mutants. Did you know the last like, 10 Russian presidents have alternated between being bald and having hair?

http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/l...cle3496747.ece
post #10 of 17
Well, one statistic that has never been measured is, what if one of them is a woman? I am predicting that from now on, whenever one is a woman, the woman will win regardless of handiness or military, or height.
post #11 of 17
That's pretty interesting...

I thought that since the invention of the TV, it was the better looking one that wins
post #12 of 17
Maybe it should be time to go against all the statistics (other then putting Hillary in office - I don't want that to happen!)
post #13 of 17
Thread Starter 
Well...I believe Ron Paul would have broken a lot of the stereotypes. I don't think we've ever had a doctor elected President, have we?
post #14 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche View Post
Uh...close?

The only time the Navy thing didn't work was when Bush beat Kerry, I think. AF versus Navy.

But McCain is built like a fighter pilot...fairly short.

Of course, all these things only work until they quit working.
Bush was never in the Air Force. He was in the Texas and Alabama Air National Guards, was discharged eight months early, and never flew out of US air space. Not exactly on an even footing, militarily, with someone who actually requested to go to Vietnam. As an officer.

For all the controversy surrounding Kerry's service, well, at least he actually showed up, instead of sort of showing up to duty in Houston and having daddy pull a lot of strings after he didn't get into law school.
post #15 of 17
Thread Starter 
Well, there ARE some oddities in both their military records. And the Air National Guard trains initially in the AF, and then transfers to the ANG.

As I said, however, the statistic works until it quits working.
post #16 of 17
I remember hearing something about the National Guard not being deployed to Vietnam back during the 2004 campaign. I can't remember where I heard it. That being said, what I heard wasn't. Out of 23,000 Army and Air Guardsmen called up, 8700 were deployed to Vietnam. Since that's only a tiny percentage of National Guard soldiers and airmen, it';s doubtful he would have been ordered over there by the Air Force anyway (you never really know though).

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrblanche
And the Air National Guard trains initially in the AF, and then transfers to the ANG.
Exactly. Air Guard enlistees receive their basic training and military schooling for their specialty from the USAF. The same as Army Guard enlistees receive their training from the US Army. Both "branches" of the National Guard fall under the rather large umbrellas of the Department of the Army and the Department of the Air Force, respectively.

Flashback: Back in 1988 I enlisted in the Ohio National Guard before I started my senior year of high school. I haven't had my basic training yet but I still had to go to monthly drills. I remember the immense sense of pride that I had after getting ready for my first drill weekend and seeing my last name and US Army on the "tapes" over the breast pockets of the BDU shirt. Going to drill and training helped me out a lot when I went basic and even moreso in AIT. I already knew how to march, clean my weapon and shoot. If only I was "young again"....*sigh*

Apologies for the slight detour.
post #17 of 17
Thread Starter 
The oddity is that a higher percentage of pilots got sent to Vietnam than ground pounders. But that wasn't the case when Bush enlisted; it happened later.

The same is kind of true of Kerry. When he volunteered for Swift Boats, they were entirely coastal patrol. By the time he got there, they were going inland.
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