Well - none of my thoughts or opinions have changed since the debate thread.
But here were Gary's predictions for 2003 (published at the end of 2002). (He's Chief Strategist at a brokerage firm).
That Bush would declare war on Iraq somewhere between January 20th and February 15th.
That the deficit will balloon, lowering GDP growth expectations. GDP target for the year: between 1.8% and 2.3%.
It may turn out that we haven't actually exited the recession.
That IF fourth quarter earnings reports come in generally as expected, many companies will be lowering guidance for 2003. (It looks like that's happening).
That the unemployment rate will grow to 7% this year. (He was right about his 6% target last year).
Last year, Gary was basically a lone voice calling for lower stock markets. "Everyone" believed that it was "impossible" for the markets to be down three years in a row. We reminded everyone constantly that Japan's market hit it's high 18 years ago. He believes the markets will be down again this year (fourth year in a row). Targets: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 6500 - 6600 (-21%), with resistance at 7900. NASDAQ: 980 - 1020 (-26.6% to -23.6%), S&P 500: 650 (-26.1%) (although he believes as low as 600 is possible). Resistance at 790. Of course, these are subject to revision through the year as new info comes in. HOWEVER, because professional money managers don't want to believe we can be down a fourth year, they will latch on to any glimmers of hope along the way, and before the end of the year, the markets could actually be up as much as 20% - 25% before the bad news sets in. This would mean even worse volatility this year than last.
He believes violence and problems in Afghanistan will continue to escalate, and that attacks against US troops will start to take place at a greater rate, and that Osama bin Laden will not be caught.
War with Iraq and problems in Venezuela MAY push oil prices into the $40s - which, of course, would be a disaster for the economy. (Saudi Arabia can ship all they want - buy Lloyd's will either charge an arm and a leg to insure ships trying to exit the Gulf in a war - or they won't insure at all. Venezuela refineries went off-line, and it takes 4 - 5 months to re-ramp refining ability).
He believes a chemical or biological attack against the US is possible (small scale terrorist - still reaping potentially large damage), and is far more of a threat than potential nuclear threat by terrorists.
European economies will continue to be weak. Latin American economies will continue to be in turmoil. China is the only engine of growth left, and will benefit the Asian economies the greatest.
North Korea will be settled diplomatically.
I don't disagree with any of his predictions - except maybe the markets. I find it hard to believe they'd be down THAT much.
But here were Gary's predictions for 2003 (published at the end of 2002). (He's Chief Strategist at a brokerage firm).
That Bush would declare war on Iraq somewhere between January 20th and February 15th.
That the deficit will balloon, lowering GDP growth expectations. GDP target for the year: between 1.8% and 2.3%.
It may turn out that we haven't actually exited the recession.
That IF fourth quarter earnings reports come in generally as expected, many companies will be lowering guidance for 2003. (It looks like that's happening).
That the unemployment rate will grow to 7% this year. (He was right about his 6% target last year).
Last year, Gary was basically a lone voice calling for lower stock markets. "Everyone" believed that it was "impossible" for the markets to be down three years in a row. We reminded everyone constantly that Japan's market hit it's high 18 years ago. He believes the markets will be down again this year (fourth year in a row). Targets: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 6500 - 6600 (-21%), with resistance at 7900. NASDAQ: 980 - 1020 (-26.6% to -23.6%), S&P 500: 650 (-26.1%) (although he believes as low as 600 is possible). Resistance at 790. Of course, these are subject to revision through the year as new info comes in. HOWEVER, because professional money managers don't want to believe we can be down a fourth year, they will latch on to any glimmers of hope along the way, and before the end of the year, the markets could actually be up as much as 20% - 25% before the bad news sets in. This would mean even worse volatility this year than last.
He believes violence and problems in Afghanistan will continue to escalate, and that attacks against US troops will start to take place at a greater rate, and that Osama bin Laden will not be caught.
War with Iraq and problems in Venezuela MAY push oil prices into the $40s - which, of course, would be a disaster for the economy. (Saudi Arabia can ship all they want - buy Lloyd's will either charge an arm and a leg to insure ships trying to exit the Gulf in a war - or they won't insure at all. Venezuela refineries went off-line, and it takes 4 - 5 months to re-ramp refining ability).
He believes a chemical or biological attack against the US is possible (small scale terrorist - still reaping potentially large damage), and is far more of a threat than potential nuclear threat by terrorists.
European economies will continue to be weak. Latin American economies will continue to be in turmoil. China is the only engine of growth left, and will benefit the Asian economies the greatest.
North Korea will be settled diplomatically.
I don't disagree with any of his predictions - except maybe the markets. I find it hard to believe they'd be down THAT much.
