The weather forcasters are idiots!

valanhb

TCS Member
Thread starter
Veteran
Joined
Mar 2, 2002
Messages
32,530
Purraise
100
Location
Lakewood (Denver suburb), Colorado
OK, I really shouldn't complain too much. It's just been the past couple of weeks that they messed up. First they said it was going to snow last Friday. Not even a hint where I live.


The forcast for today was "Flurries developing in the evening, 1-3" overnight with heavier accumulations in the foothills and south of Denver." OK, it was snowing when I woke up. Revised in the morning to, "Snow this morning but clearing this afternoon and snow reforming this evening. 1-3" total." By the time I went home for lunch we had a good 6" on the car. But the revised forcast (at noon) said 7" total for western suburbs, still 1-3" for the main Denver-Metro area. Riiiiiiiiiight!
 

katachtig

Moderator
Staff Member
Admin
Joined
Jun 25, 2005
Messages
25,289
Purraise
2,892
Location
Colorado
I really did like the storm last Friday - it was sunny, beautiful and warm all day. They have never been able to forecast snow here. Something about the mountains intimidate them.
 

kai bengals

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Sep 5, 2005
Messages
3,931
Purraise
17
Location
North Carolina
I agree that the forecasters are ...something.....

But, we're probably the idiots, because we keep falling for their lies!

There must be some rule that forecasters only have to be correct 10 percent of the time in order to keep their jobs.
 

trouts mom

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Mar 4, 2006
Messages
23,949
Purraise
16
Location
Snowy Santa Land
I find here when they warn about a big storm, there is a tiny storm..but when they don't warn us...we get slammed with 3 feet of snow
 

momofmany

TCS Member
Veteran
Joined
Jul 15, 2003
Messages
16,249
Purraise
70
Location
There's no place like home
Around here, when they say 30% chance of snow, you wonder whether that means 30% of the metro will be covered, or it will snow 30% of the time, or there is really a 30% chance.
 

lokismum

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Aug 10, 2006
Messages
7,020
Purraise
10
Location
The North Pole!
Originally Posted by Trouts mom

I find here when they warn about a big storm, there is a tiny storm..but when they don't warn us...we get slammed with 3 feet of snow
Yup - tomorrow should be interesting! Supposed to get snow in the afternoon, followed by ice pellets and freezing rain continuing on into Friday, with 60 kph winds. I guess we'll see!
 

ldg

TCS Member
Veteran
Joined
Jun 25, 2002
Messages
41,310
Purraise
842
Location
Fighting for ferals in NW NJ!
Where we live, WHATEVER the storm is, it's always "....and North and West of the City...." (meaning New York) - fill in the blank - more rain than everywhere else, colder, more snow, more ice ..... and as Gary explains to people, when the forecasters say "...and north and west of the city..." - they mean OUR house!


There have been a lot of forecasts for snow that didn't happen this year. But we don't have TV anymore, so we don't have to listen to it! We just read the mistakes at weather.com.


Laurie
 

amberthe bobcat

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Oct 17, 2003
Messages
4,829
Purraise
18
Location
In the Cougars den
Originally Posted by Momofmany

Around here, when they say 30% chance of snow, you wonder whether that means 30% of the metro will be covered, or it will snow 30% of the time, or there is really a 30% chance.
When the weather forecasters say 30% chance or 80% chance, what this means is this. During the last "x" many years, "x" usually the amount of time they have been keeping records, when the conditions were the same, it rained, snowed or whatever, 30% or 80% of the time. So, they look at their maps, satellite images, wind flow and so on. If the last time they had the same observations it snowed 60% of the time, they predict that you will have a 60% chance of getting snow. This percent chance, does not indicate how much rain or snow you will have, just what percent chance you will have at getting any precipitation. At 30% chance, you could get 6 inches of snow and at 80% chance, you could just get a brief flurry. I hope this helps make things a little less confusing
 

pekoe & nigel

TCS Member
Super Cat
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Messages
916
Purraise
1
Location
Canada
My boss obsessively follows the forecast. I always tease him because it changes so often. He loves to follow the 2-week forecast. From day to day it'll COMPLETELY change. Why bother putting together a forecast if you can't actually predict that far in advance?
Some things are just beyond me I guess...
 

icklemiss21

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Aug 14, 2005
Messages
16,465
Purraise
20
Location
in the land of poutine and ice
As far as forecasts, my boss makes us print forecasts for cities right beside each other even though there is only one weather station so they always say the exact same thing!

And the weatherman changes his mind too much to pay attention to. We were supposed to get freezing rain and winds of 60km/hr tomorrow, now it says 10-15cm of snow daytime and 15mm of freezing rain in the evening and winds of 35km/hr

and we are right on the lake while the weather station is more in land so it is never right anyway! It can be raining / snowing / whatever here and sunny 5-10 mins away
 

sharky

TCS Member
Veteran
Joined
Jan 30, 2005
Messages
27,231
Purraise
38
Hummm last night they said flurries and maybe a few inches....lol.. I woke to 8 inches ( i dont have a snow blower
)... tomarrow was supposed to be clear ... one says chance of flurries other one says 1 to 2 inches ....
 

gailc

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
11,567
Purraise
13
Location
Wisconsin
A couple of years ago I went with garden club to the local NOAA weather station (BTW they are usually be airports) The meterologist said the weather while predicted out for 7 days the farther out the forecast the less accurate. The chance of that 7th day being correct is 50%!!
It was funny on the local TV station this morning as the weather was showing up as potentially rain about 50 miles south but he wasn't sure so he wanted people from that area to call and let him know what it was really doing!!
I have found that NOAA.gov website to be pretty accurate.
 

strange_wings

TCS Member
Top Cat
Joined
Dec 20, 2006
Messages
13,498
Purraise
39
Our weather is very sporadic but they're usually somewhat correct here. When they say it will be warm, it's hot. It's almost always windy, so no one can go wrong on that prediction. The winter storms tend to be over exaggerated, at least for some parts of the state.
But despite this they have saved many lives
Soon it will be tornado season here again...
 
Top